Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101716
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Bahamas (AL98):
Shower activity has diminished near a trough of low pressure located
near the central Bahamas. This system is located within an
unfavorable environment, and development is not expected. However,
locally gusty winds are still possible as the system moves generally
westward across the Bahamas through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

...RAFAEL DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Nov 10 the center of Rafael was located near 26.1, -91.3 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

000
WTNT33 KNHC 102032
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
 
...RAFAEL DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 91.3W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael 
was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 91.3 West. The 
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). 
The remnant low is expected to meander over the central Gulf of 
Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and 
south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with 
higher gusts. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday 
night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under 
AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at 
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
SURF: Swells will continue impacting portions of the northern and
western Gulf Coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on Rafael. Additional information on this system can be found 
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under 
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024

000
WTNT23 KNHC 102031
TCMAT3
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  91.3W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  91.3W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N  91.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.8N  90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.1N  90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N  91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N  92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N  91.3W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON RAFAEL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND 
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

000
WTNT43 KNHC 102032
TCDAT3
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
 
The limited convection that Rafael was producing in its eastern 
semicircle has collapsed. Surface observations, visible satellite 
images, and a 1530z ASCAT-C pass show the surface circulation has 
become poorly defined and very elongated in the north-south 
direction. Since Rafael does not possess a well-defined center or 
organized convection, it no longer meets the definition of a 
tropical cyclone. This will be the final NHC advisory on Rafael.

The remnant low is expected to drift eastward over the central Gulf 
of Mexico tonight, then turn toward the south and southwest on 
Monday and Tuesday. The forecast calls for dissipation by Tuesday 
night, but this could occur even sooner if current trends continue. 
The elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf 
Coast will likely continue into Monday. For more information, see 
products from your local NWS forecast office.

Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by 
the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO 
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast through Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 26.1N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  11/0600Z 25.8N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  11/1800Z 25.1N  90.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0600Z 24.1N  91.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1800Z 23.2N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024

000
FONT13 KNHC 102032
PWSAT3
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024               
2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 20:33:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 21:22:48 GMT